This is something I first wrote up in 2017 but never got around to publishing. Scenarios still work in Excel. What is described below is still a fine starting point for a broad or moderately robust risk analysis effort. However, more complex projects or a combination of multiple projects will require different methods to properly assess uncertainty and risk.
Consider two project development engineers working in parallel universes. You know, any normal day. Common Carl and Rare Randy each receive the final lighting line-by-line analysis from their trusted lighting partner. Carl takes the total $ savings shown, plugs them into his financial model, and recommends a guaranteed savings factor of 95% for this project because, well, “it’s lighting.” Before he emails the team, he runs out to get a turkey club and a peach Snapple.
Randy, on the other hand, is rare. He does things a little differently. Continue reading Risk Analysis using Excel’s Scenario Manager
